Yes, that’s a clickbait title.
No, I don’t care you’re upset.
Simple truth is you might be studying this, which suggests it labored so sit again and revel in.
With that established, it’s attainable to debate how with the 2020 NFL season within the rear view mirror, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hoisted the Lombardi trophy as league champions. By main the Bucs to victory, the legend of Tom Brady has added one more chapter, and the addition of a seventh Super Bowl win additional separates Brady from the quarterbacks who’re anyplace even near him.
Brady’s greatness is related with the 2021 league yr set to begin in lower than 4 weeks on March 17, as one of many main points groups throughout the league are set to face is the affect of the COVID pandemic on the 2020 revenues, and the anticipated lower within the wage cap for 2021. For the Seattle Seahawks, that may imply needing to determine easy methods to create cap area within the coming weeks, as whereas OverTheCap.com presently lists the Hawks as having a projected $4.95M in area, that’s not a completely correct quantity.
First, that quantity solely consists of 47 gamers below contract, so as soon as the roster is constructed out to 51, it’s going to signify an addition of at the least $2.64M in cap prices even when solely minimal wage rookies are added to the roster (at $660k every). Add in a further $3M or so in cap expenses related to the tenders which might be more likely to be prolonged to unique rights free brokers and restricted free brokers, and impulsively Seattle is being within the purple, even primarily based on the prediction of a cap set at $180M or $181M.
Now, it’s no emergency for a staff to be over the cap, as groups can create cap area by way of a mess of how, and it simply comes right down to how precisely a staff decides to create the area it wants. When it involves the Seahawks, many haves have known as for quarterback Russell Wilson to take a reduction to be able to enable the staff to place higher expertise round him. Many of the calls have cited the “low cost” Brady offered the New England Patriots over time, particularly proffering a Business Insider article authored in March of 2020, which posits that Brady “sacrificed at the least $60 million in his profession”.
Now, I might go on and on in regards to the flaws within the evaluation performed by Business Insider and poke holes of their analysis of the low cost Brady acquired, but it surely’s a protracted offseason and I’ll dig into the specifics of the alleged low cost sooner or later within the coming weeks. For now, I’m going to one to draw back from dumping on poor analytical work, right here’s the methodology of that Business Insider article (bolding added is mine):
We imagined a situation the place Brady signed new offers in 2005, 2009, 2013, and 2017 that have been the equal of the going charge for the highest quarterback on the time. In every of these 4 years, we gave Brady a brand new contract equal to that of the most important contracts for veteran quarterbacks that had been signed earlier than that season or the earlier season. We additionally imagined that Brady solely performed 4 seasons below every contract after which signed a brand new deal.
So, principally, they made up a situation the place Brady signed contracts at opportune occasions. In actuality, Brady signed extensions in 2005, 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019 previous to changing into a free agent in 2020. So, beginning in 2010 Brady renegotiated each three years, moderately than the 4 years the Business Insider article “imagines” and on which they base their estimates.
For comparative functions, let’s take the identical methodology and “think about” a situation the place Wilson signed a contract extension each three years starting in 2015 and provides Wilson a contract equal to that of the most important contracts for veteran quarterbacks that had been signed earlier than that season or the earlier season. Here’s how that appears primarily based on Wilson’s 2015 contract, which had him $100k per season beneath the best paid participant within the NFL and his 2019 contract, which made him the best paid participant within the league.
So, for reference the contract that shall be used for comparative functions are the contract below which Aaron Rodgers performed from 2015 by way of 2017, then the Jimmy Garoppolo contract from 2018 by way of 2020 and the Patrick Mahomes contract from 2021 by way of 2023. Here’s how, utilizing the identical methodology as above, Wilson’s low cost calculates.

Russell Wilson contract low cost by season

Year

Wilson

Comp

Comp Player

Wilson Discount

Year

Wilson

Comp

Comp Player

Wilson Discount

2015

$7,054,000

$22,000,000

Rodgers

$14,946,000

2016

$18,542,000

$22,000,000

Rodgers

$3,458,000

2017

$14,660,000

$22,000,000

Rodgers

$7,340,000

2018

$23,786,000

$27,500,000

Garoppolo

$3,714,000

2019

$26,286,000

$27,500,000

Garoppolo

$1,214,000

2020

$31,000,000

$27,500,000

Garoppolo

-$3,500,000

2021

$32,000,000

$45,000,000

Mahomes

$13,000,000

2022

$37,000,000

$45,000,000

Mahomes

$8,000,000

2023

$39,000,000

$45,000,000

Mahomes

$6,000,000

Total

$229,328,000

$283,500,000

N/A

$54,172,000

So, utilizing that methodology, Wilson is ready to play 2021 on a reduction of $13M relative to the best paid quarterback within the NFL, and by the point his present contract runs out, can have given the Seahawks a reduction of greater than $54M. Even excluding the 2015 season when he performed on the ultimate yr of his rookie contract, Wilson could be thought-about to have given a reduction of practically $40M over the eight years from 2016 by way of 2023, a mean of $5M per season.
Is that “low cost” imaginary and utterly made up primarily based on the situation I “imagined”? Absolutely 100%, and I deliberately did so to be able to illustrate how missing the methodology of the alleged Brady low cost of $60M actually is. That mentioned, the important thing factor to remove is that Russell Wilson isn’t going to provide the Seahawks a reduction, nor ought to he, as a result of he’s already set to play the 2021 season on a $13M low cost.